The rise in tomato prices is contributing to overall inflation. In the first half of March, Mexico’s National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) reached 4.63% year-on-year, up from 3.67% during the same period last year, exceeding the central bank’s target of around 3%.
According to the Grupo Consultor de Mercados Agrícolas (GCMA), the increase is particularly pronounced in the most volatile segments, with the fruit and vegetable index rising by 23.91% annually.
Frost and weather damage disrupt supply
The price surge is largely attributed to an internal supply shock caused by frost and weather-related damage in key producing regions such as Sinaloa, Zacatecas, Puebla and Morelos. These conditions have reduced the availability of several tomato varieties.
As a result, the price of saladette tomatoes increased by 86.8% year-on-year, reaching 19.80 pesos per kilogram at the Central de Abasto in mid-March, compared to 7.35 pesos during the same period the previous year.
Insecurity adds pressure on the supply chain
Security issues are further disrupting the sector. Producers and traders report that organized crime and road blockades are affecting logistics, particularly for shipments from major producing regions such as Sinaloa and Jalisco.
These risks translate into higher operational costs for producers and transporters, which are ultimately passed on to consumers, while also limiting supply in local markets.
Rising input costs and global risks
Beyond local factors, global dynamics are also influencing the sector. Rising costs for fertilizers and energy, partly linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, are expected to put additional pressure on agricultural production.
Mexico imports around 70% of its fertilizers from countries such as Russia, China and the United States, making the sector particularly vulnerable to international price fluctuations.
Continued volatility expected
In the short term, tomato prices are expected to remain volatile, as supply constraints persist and input costs remain high. Producers may seek government support to offset rising expenses, while the sector continues to navigate a complex environment shaped by climate, security and global market pressures.