Peru, the world’s leading exporter, has shipped over 20,800 containers to Europe (+30%), adding to the global surplus alongside South Africa and Kenya. Large sizes are often sold below €2.50/kg, while smaller fruits — in shorter supply — exceed €3.00/kg. Demand, which slowed during the summer, is picking up again with the September back-to-school season, as the Mediterranean harvest begins earlier than usual (Israel, Morocco, then Spain).
Europe: Between Abundance and Shifting Production Zones
- Italy: Prices remain between €3 and €4/kg. Sales of Israeli avocados are affected by the geopolitical situation. Italian producers, particularly in Calabria, continue to expand organic production, even as demand stabilizes.
- Spain: Production is expected to increase by 20–25% thanks to better rainfall and the entry into production of new plantations. The country’s avocado heartland is gradually shifting from Málaga to Huelva, Cádiz, and the Valencian Community, where water availability is higher.
- Germany: After record Peruvian shipments (18,000 containers per week), supply is now tightening. Smaller sizes are scarce, driving up prices. Chile, Israel, and Morocco will take over from November onward.
- Netherlands: Peruvian imports remain strong. Large fruit prices have dropped below €2.50/kg, while medium and small sizes (from Kenya and Colombia) exceed €3/kg. The transition toward Moroccan and Spanish supply is expected to be smooth.
- France: Prices remain low despite steady consumption. Morocco and Israel will start earlier this season, supported by new orchards and higher volumes.
Americas: Peruvian Leadership and Colombian Expansion
- Mexico: Still dominates the U.S. market thanks to proximity, but faces limited access to Europe due to certification barriers.
- United States / Canada: Markets remain well supplied by Mexico, California, and Peru. Prices are stable and attractive, supported by retail promotions.
- Peru: After a mid-season oversupply, prices are recovering (€9–12 per box). The country aims to strengthen its presence in Asia, particularly in Japan, South Korea, and China.
- Colombia: Targeting year-round production (52 weeks) with growing volumes and high dry matter content (>23%). About 80% of exports go to Europe, and 20% to the U.S.
- Guatemala: Seeks to consolidate its European exports (600 containers per year) while expanding into Asian markets (Japan, South Korea).
Africa: Expansion and Diversification
- South Africa: Benefits from a favorable export window (weeks 40–44) as Peru’s season ends. Strong demand from the UK and EU, but mixed results in China and India.
- Kenya: Starts its second harvest cycle with prices up 10–20%. Over 70% of production is processed into avocado oil.
- Tanzania: Season completed, with stable demand from Europe, the Middle East, and India. The country is emerging as a reliable origin.
- Rwanda: Experiencing spectacular growth (+200–300%) with a target of 25,000 tons by 2027. Exports to Europe and the Middle East are rising thanks to improved logistics.
- Egypt: An emerging player with an ambitious strategy to become a major exporter within five to seven years, leveraging competitive logistics and low costs
- Morocco: A challenging season due to heatwaves that reduced harvests by 40–60% (≈80,000 tons). Growers are focusing on larger calibers to offset losses and maintain high prices.
Global Trends
- The global market remains oversupplied, though imbalances persist by fruit size.
- Low prices stimulate consumption but reduce producer margins.
- The center of production is gradually shifting toward new regions (East Africa, the Mediterranean).
- Geographic diversification is becoming a key strategy for year-round supply.
Climate and logistics challenges — including heat, water scarcity, and maritime transport — are reshaping the global avocado map.