In Europe, availability is gradually recovering, while in Morocco, water shortages and adverse weather conditions are disrupting the start of the winter production season.
Europe: Supply Recovers, but Market Conditions Remain Mixed
In the Netherlands and Belgium, tomato volumes are recovering following a summer marked by extreme temperatures. This increase in supply is putting downward pressure on prices, although they remain above the five-year average. In Belgium, average prices stand at approximately €1.56/kg for vine tomatoes and €1.52/kg for loose tomatoes.
In Italy, market conditions remain challenging. Limited supplies from Sicily are keeping prices high, with Piccadilly and Datterino tomatoes priced at around €4.20/kg and €5.80/kg respectively at grower level. Volumes are expected to increase gradually throughout October, with production reaching full capacity by early November.
In France, the domestic tomato season is approaching its end. Following exceptionally high prices in early September, the market has returned to more seasonal levels, although volatility remains significant. Increasing arrivals from Morocco and Spain are expected to intensify competition in the French market.
Spain: Greenhouse Area Declines as Disease Pressure Persists
In Spain, significant volumes from the autumn-winter production cycle are expected to become available from mid-October.
For the 2026/27 season, greenhouse tomato acreage is estimated at approximately 13,500 hectares, representing a slight decrease compared with the previous campaign.
High labour, input and crop protection costs are encouraging some growers to diversify into other crops. Meanwhile, Tomato Brown Rugose Fruit Virus (ToBRFV) remains a major concern, reducing yields and affecting fruit size.
Facing increasing competition from Morocco and Turkey in the loose and vine tomato segments, Spanish producers are placing greater emphasis on plum tomatoes and specialty varieties.
Morocco: Water Shortages Delay the Winter Tomato Season
In Morocco's Souss-Massa region, growers are facing another challenging season despite improved dam reserves following several years of drought.
Delayed repairs to pipelines connected to the Youssef Ben Tachfine dam and recurring interruptions at the Chtouka Aït Baha desalination plant continue to disrupt water availability.
These difficulties are forcing some producers to rely on costly water tankers, while increasing irrigation water salinity is complicating fertigation management, particularly in Chtouka and Taroudant.
Hot winds and sudden temperature fluctuations have also damaged young plants. At the same time, the area planted with round tomatoes has reportedly declined by another 10–15%, driven by agronomic and commercial constraints.
As a result, the winter production cycle is expected to begin 10 to 15 days later than usual, while early fruit clusters are already showing uneven sizing and lower-than-expected yields.
Germany and North America: Different Price Dynamics
In Germany, increased tomato availability, mainly from the Netherlands and Belgium, is putting downward pressure on prices. Nevertheless, price levels remain significantly higher than during the same period last year.
In North America, supply remains uneven as several production regions transition between growing seasons. Adverse weather conditions, particularly in Mexico, are also affecting availability.
Prices remain elevated compared with previous years, supported by limited supply and higher logistics costs.
South Africa: Supply and Demand Weaken
In South Africa, recent cold and rainy spring conditions have reduced tomato availability.
At the Johannesburg municipal market, average prices stand at approximately €0.30/kg. Demand for smaller and lower-grade tomatoes has declined considerably, partly due to the loss of informal trading outlets that previously absorbed these products.
A Global Market Increasingly Shaped by Production Challenges
The outlook for the global tomato market remains closely linked to weather conditions, water availability, production costs and disease pressure.
As several European countries enter their new production cycles, Morocco's water-related challenges and adjustments in Spanish greenhouse acreage could influence supply dynamics across European markets in the coming months.
For growers and exporters, efficient water management, crop protection and consistent supply remain essential factors in maintaining competitiveness.