Speaking at the 16th Aneberries International Congress, held in Guadalajara, Mexico, in late July, David Magaña, Senior Analyst at Rabobank, outlined the key trends currently shaping the global berry market.
Tariffs, trade tensions and uncertainty surrounding the future of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) are making long-term planning increasingly difficult. Producers’ investment decisions are also being influenced by interest rates, exchange rates, inflation and consumer confidence.
The US remains highly dependent on berry imports
For Mexican exporters, the depreciation of the US dollar against other currencies is also affecting competitiveness by reducing export revenues while increasing pressure on production costs.
Despite these challenges, the United States continues to rely heavily on imports to ensure a consistent supply of fresh berries. For blueberries, raspberries and blackberries in particular, imported fruit plays a crucial role in maintaining year-round availability.
According to Magaña, US consumers increasingly expect to find fresh fruit 12 months a year, reinforcing the market’s structural dependence on imports.
Blueberries: Europe and Asia offer strong growth prospects
Blueberries remain one of the fastest-growing categories in terms of global consumption. Rabobank expects Europe to become an increasingly important export destination by the end of the decade.
At the same time, Asia continues to expand, particularly China, where both blueberry production and consumption are growing rapidly.
Health trends and purchasing power reshape US demand
In the United States, wellness trends are supporting demand for fresh fruit. Programs promoting healthier diets, together with the growing use of GLP-1 medications, are contributing to shifts in purchasing habits toward foods with higher fibre content and stronger nutritional profiles, according to Rabobank.
However, the US market is also experiencing increasing consumer polarisation. Higher-income households are purchasing more premium products, while price-sensitive consumers are seeking more affordable alternatives. This trend is gradually reducing the space available for mid-range products.
Raspberries and blackberries: volumes rise while margins remain under pressure
Mexican strawberries continue to benefit from solid demand, although the category is facing anti-dumping investigations in the United States.
Raspberry and blackberry volumes are also increasing, but international prices have remained relatively stagnant. Combined with rising production costs and less favourable exchange rates, this is putting additional pressure on growers’ profitability.
Fertiliser, energy and other input costs are also expected to remain challenging as long as international instability persists.
Competitiveness, innovation and quality become key priorities
According to Rabobank, the industry’s main challenge will increasingly shift from stimulating demand to remaining competitive in a growing but more demanding global market.
Greater efficiency, innovation and, above all, consistent quality will be critical. The ability to deliver a reliable consumer experience and high-quality berries throughout the year is expected to become a key competitive advantage.
Despite greater global uncertainty, the outlook for berry demand therefore remains positive. However, the ability of industry players to control costs, secure markets and maintain consistent quality will be essential to turning growing demand into sustainable long-term growth.