Inventory levels remain high across several European markets, while consumption growth has not been sufficient to absorb the available fruit.
Peru, currently the dominant supplier to Europe, is playing a major role in this situation. Heavy arrivals have led to a sharp decline in prices, forcing some operators to sell below cost in an effort to reduce accumulated stocks.
Lower Moroccan Production Supports Spanish Avocado Prices
Spain's avocado season ended with strong price levels throughout the campaign. According to industry operators, Morocco's nearly 50% decline in avocado production reduced competitive pressure on the European market, helping support prices during the season. At the same time, improved water availability in Spain contributed to better yields and higher export volumes.
Peru: Record Volumes, Lower Returns
Peru is experiencing a season of strong production and export volumes, but also significant price pressure. The concentration of shipments to Europe early in the campaign saturated inventories and pushed prices downward.
To ease market pressure, Peruvian exporters have begun redirecting part of their volumes to the United States, where Mexican supplies are tighter. This shift could help rebalance the European market in the coming months.
Colombia Expects a Strong Main Harvest
In Colombia, heavy rainfall at the end of 2025 reduced flowering and limited exports during the secondary crop. Despite these challenges, outlooks remain positive, with a strong main harvest expected between weeks 32 and 34 and encouraging fruit quality reported by growers.
Mexico Sees Price Recovery
After a period of lower prices, the Mexican avocado market has begun to recover. Farmgate prices have increased, and the start of the new season in Jalisco and Michoacán is expected to gradually boost availability.
Industry stakeholders are also optimistic about domestic demand ahead of the FIFA World Cup, which is expected to attract millions of visitors and stimulate avocado consumption across the country.
India Continues to Expand as an Emerging Market
India’s avocado market continues to grow rapidly, with imports increasing by 150% between January and May 2025 compared with the same period a year earlier.
However, strong arrivals from Tanzania and Kenya during the East African peak season have created temporary oversupply conditions, resulting in lower prices across the market.
Long-Term Growth Prospects Remain Positive
Despite the current oversupply situation in Europe, the long-term outlook for the global avocado industry remains positive. Growing consumption in emerging markets, diversification of supply origins, and the expansion of exports to new destinations are expected to continue supporting the development of the sector in the years ahead.