The International Blueberry Organization (IBO) has released its 2026 Global State of the Blueberry Industry Report. The blueberry industry continues its spectacular growth, but the rules of the game are changing. From new production giants and climate challenges to the accelerating race for premium quality, the report identifies the trends reshaping this high-value category.
Ten years ago, few would have believed that the global area planted with blueberries could more than double and production volumes could almost triple without causing prices to collapse. Yet that is the direction indicated by the latest IBO report. With 303,076 hectares planted in 2025, including 257,971 hectares in production, and cultivated production reaching 2.3 million tonnes, blueberries are confirming their status as a leading fruit category.
Today, the industry is increasingly focused on the fresh market, which accounts for about 77% of global production, or approximately 1.79 million tonnes, compared with an approximately even split between fresh and processed fruit around fifteen years ago.
The expansion of the fresh category should not be confused with the disappearance of processing. Fresh blueberries now represent around 77% of global volume, compared with a more even split around fifteen years ago, indicating that fresh consumption has grown faster than processing. However, processing remains an important outlet for older varieties and fruit that does not meet fresh-market specifications. The key question for each producing region is how much of its increasing production is converted into marketable, premium fresh fruit rather than being downgraded through quality, shelf-life or post-harvest limitations.
Fresh Growth Does Not Remove the Processing Question
This is a shift towards fresh fruit, not a shift from fresh fruit into processing. Fresh volume has expanded faster than processing as the category has grown. The report describes the processed segment as broadly levelling off, although older varieties and fruit that does not meet fresh-market specifications continue to provide an important industrial supply stream, particularly in Canada, Chile and the Pacific Northwest of the United States.
The more useful question is therefore not whether additional production is simply being diverted to industry, but whether each producing region is improving its percentage of marketable fresh fruit as hectares expand. Aggregate volume data alone cannot answer this. It requires country- and cultivar-level evidence on premium packout, defects, downgrades, processing share, realised price and post-harvest losses.
A New Geography of Global Blueberry Production
The global production map is undergoing a major transformation. In a historic shift, the Americas, the birthplace of blueberry cultivation, now account for less than 50% of global production. Blueberries have become a truly global crop.
* Asia is booming: Driven by rapid expansion, China has surpassed 100,000 hectares of planted blueberries, roughly twice the area planted in the United States. Asia-Pacific is growing at a remarkable pace, with production expected to increase by 60% by 2029.
* Peru maintains its position: Despite severe climate disruptions, particularly El Niño, Peru has firmly established itself as the world’s second-largest producer of fresh blueberries.
* Morocco is emerging as a key player: Within the EMEA region (Europe, Middle East and Africa), Morocco is reshaping the established hierarchy. The country has now surpassed Spain in planted area and produces larger volumes than Mexico, illustrating the strength of its export-oriented agricultural model.
Towards a Two-Tier Market
One of the report’s major findings is the increasing “bimodalization” of the market. Consumers and retailers are demanding higher standards: larger berries, including Jumbo sizes, exceptional firmness, sweetness and longer shelf life. These new-generation varieties are increasingly sought after, while standard-quality fruit is facing tighter margins. Meeting basic specifications is no longer enough; excellence is becoming a competitive requirement.
From Expansion to Paid Yield
The next stage of the blueberry industry will not be defined by who produces the most fruit, but by who converts the highest proportion of production into reliable, marketable and profitable kilograms. With around 15% of planted global area still below mature production, future volume is already projected in the system. This will increase pressure on fruit that does not meet the evolving standard for size, firmness, flavour and shelf life.
The market is entering a period of scarcity without shortage: global supply continues to expand, yet retailers may still struggle to secure the right fruit, in the right condition, at the right time. Biological yield is therefore an incomplete measure of success. The relevant indicators are premium packout, cost per kilogram sold, harvest and volume forecast accuracy, fruit temperature and time to pre-cooling, shelf-life performance, and rejected or claimed fruit.
As low- and zero-chill systems face higher capital, labour and input costs, competitiveness will increasingly depend on production-system discipline. In some high-chill regions, strong native soils, mechanisation potential and lower unit costs may restore an advantage. In others, substrate, tunnels and new genetics will be essential to control climate risk and secure early, consistent supply. The winning businesses will not merely grow blueberries; they will deliver a dependable consumer experience every week, with a cost structure that leaves value for the whole chain.
Climate, Costs and Innovation: Challenges for the Next Decade
The “easy days” of the blueberry industry are behind us. To reach the projected 3.4 million tonnes by 2029, representing approximately one million additional tonnes, the industry will need to overcome several major challenges :
1- Climate disruption as the new normal : Weather disruptions can no longer be considered isolated anomalies. Droughts, heatwaves and events such as El Niño are forcing growers to adapt through solutions including protected cultivation and more resilient varieties.
2- Rising costs and a changing competitive balance : Input and labor inflation are affecting producers worldwide. Regions historically regarded as highly profitable low-chill production areas are seeing their costs increase, potentially renewing the attractiveness and competitiveness of traditional high-chill regions, where mechanization can be easier to implement.
3- Technology as a key enabler : The industry has now reached a scale capable of supporting its own innovation ecosystem. Artificial intelligence, harvest-assistance robotics, substrate-based production systems and new approaches to genetics are emerging as important tools for improving future profitability.
4- Major Opportunities, but Higher Expectations
Global demand continues to grow, supported by market development in countries such as Brazil and India, stronger domestic consumption in producing countries, and rising per-capita consumption. If the industry can combine year-round availability with consistently excellent eating quality, blueberries may be well positioned to become one of the world’s most popular fruits.
Competition, however, is intensifying. The players most likely to succeed will be those capable of consistent execution, rapid innovation adoption, and reliably delivering outstanding quality.