Europe: Tight Supply Driven by Weather Disruptions

Across Europe, avocado availability remains limited. Weather disruptions in key producing countries such as Spain and Morocco continue to restrict supply, impacting both wholesale and retail markets.

In countries like Germany and the Netherlands, supply is only just sufficient to meet demand. Limited Spanish volumes and delayed harvesting are putting additional pressure on the market. Similar conditions are observed in Italy and Belgium, where firm prices and constrained imports are shaping trade dynamics. Spain, in particular, is experiencing ongoing harvest disruptions due to persistent adverse weather.

Germany: Limited Availability and Delayed Harvests

In Germany, avocado consumption continues to grow steadily. However, current availability remains tight.

Spanish supply is especially limited, particularly in the third week of January. Hailstorms have led to a below-average harvest, while in the Comunidad Valenciana the season ended earlier than usual. In Málaga, harvesting delays caused by unfavourable weather conditions are further reducing availability.

Kenya is expected to provide some relief, with increasing volumes forecast for the current season. Shipments by sea freight are expected soon, which should help support supply in the German market.

Currently, imports from Morocco and Israel dominate the market. Due to tight supply, promotional activity in retail is lower than in previous years.

The Netherlands: Rising Prices and Volatile Sales

In the Netherlands, persistent rainfall in Spain and Morocco is disrupting harvesting operations. Difficult access to orchards is limiting supply, while demand—especially for organic avocados—is increasing.

Wholesale market activity remains unstable, with significant day-to-day fluctuations. Rising prices are making buyers more cautious. Conventional avocados (size 18) are priced around €17, while larger sizes (12–16) reach even higher levels. Organic avocados are approximately 20% more expensive.

Italy: High Prices and Weak Consumption

Italy is experiencing particularly high avocado prices due to reduced supply and adverse weather conditions in producing regions. At the same time, consumer demand remains weak.

Supply shortages affect all origins. Morocco’s season is under pressure, while Spain is facing an uncertain and fragmented campaign. Alternative sources remain limited: Israel ships small volumes, Colombia has restricted availability, and Mexico has not yet started sea freight shipments.

As a result, prices remain high across all categories. Even Greenskin varieties range between €11 and €12 for top quality. Larger sizes offer some cost advantages, but overall consumption remains sluggish, and seasonal demand peaks have not materialised.

Despite these conditions, avocado sales continue to grow overall. Supply is mainly sourced from South America, with limited volumes from Spain and Sicily. Mexican avocados are currently perceived as the highest quality.

Belgium: Weather Impact Strengthens Market Pressure

Belgium is also experiencing the effects of adverse weather conditions in Spain and Morocco. Reduced production and exports are tightening supply and supporting firm prices.

Unlike the previous year, where prices declined during this period, the current combination of limited supply and steady demand is driving prices upward. Continued rainfall could lead to further delays.

Colombia is temporarily benefiting from this situation, as additional volumes help support the market. However, this remains a short-term solution, as Colombia lacks sufficient supply to sustain long-term demand.

Spain: Harvest Delays Maintain Supply Pressure

In Spain, heavy rainfall and strong winds since late December have significantly disrupted harvesting activities in key production areas.

Harvesting has been repeatedly delayed in Málaga, while hailstorms and summer heatwaves have reduced production in the Comunidad Valenciana. As a result, supply remains below demand, keeping prices on an upward trend.

Although demand is strong, high prices are making wholesale buyers more cautious in their purchasing decisions.

North America: Strong Mexican Supply Supports Market Stability

In contrast to Europe, North America benefits from a strong and consistent supply of avocados from Mexico.

Favourable weather conditions have resulted in a strong crop with good fruit sizes. Mexico accounts for approximately 96% of avocado volumes entering the U.S., ensuring stable supply through the season.

Imports are reaching record levels, with significant volume increases observed both year-on-year and week-on-week. Demand remains strong, particularly during peak consumption periods such as the Super Bowl.

Stable pricing conditions are allowing retailers to plan promotions more effectively, without the need to anticipate major price increases.

South Africa: Positive Outlook Despite Localized Damage

South Africa is preparing for its upcoming avocado season, with early harvesting expected soon.

Although hail damage has been reported in some regions, it is not expected to significantly impact total production. The 2026 crop is estimated at 22 million 4-kg cartons. However, dry conditions in the Southern Cape may result in smaller fruit sizes.

Mexico: Dominating the Global Avocado Market

Mexico continues to play a central role in the global avocado market, particularly in the United States.

Prices for Hass avocados have remained stable, with good availability of large sizes. However, weather risks such as rain, hail, and frost could impact supply in 2026 and push prices upward.

Peru: Expanding Supply Focused on Europe

Peru is increasing avocado production primarily through expanded planted areas. Europe remains its main export market.

While prices remain firm for now, the risk of oversupply is expected to increase from March–April. Most exports consist of medium-sized fruit, and the U.S. remains a less attractive destination due to Mexico’s dominance.

Colombia: Growth Continues Despite Cost Pressure

Colombia has recorded approximately 10% growth in its latest avocado season.

However, rising labour costs and currency pressures are affecting profitability. Europe remains the primary destination, while the U.S. market is less competitive due to strong Mexican supply.

Chile: Managing Volatility in a Competitive Market

Chile operates in a highly volatile avocado market environment, influenced by strong supply from Peru and Colombia.

Europe remains its main outlet but is highly sensitive to fluctuations in volume and quality. Maintaining consistent supply and precise scheduling is essential to avoid market disruptions and price corrections.

Publication date: Fri 30 Jan 2026
Source: FreshPlaza